კონფერენცია

∘ Avtandil Sulaberidze ∘
RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION – START OF DEPOPULATION IN GEORGIA

Summary

The modern demographic development of the world is characterized by diversity and if in some developed countries the modern type of population reproduction is replaced by the newest type - depopulation, in others it is in the last phase, and still in some other countries the second phase of the modern type of population reproduction is noticed.

There is an interesting situation in South Caucasus as well. Unlike Azerbaijan, where the third phase of the modern type of population reproduction has just started (the rate of mortality went down to 6‰ by 2018 and at the same time, the tendency of significant decrease in child-birth is also noticeable, down to 16,5‰ by 2018), in Armenia the same phase was noted in the 90s of the last century and according to the data of the UN, one can expect the completion of the modern type of population reproduction and start of the newest type during 2020-2025 [www.esa.un.org].

As regards Georgia, the modern type of population reproduction came to an end in the 90s of the last century and today one can notice clear signs of depopulation. Generally, Georgia is characterized by the European type of demographic behavior and for a long time it has belonged to the list of the demographically developed countries. However, there is a distinction in that as opposed to the developed countries of Europe, it is an economically developing country like some of the Post-Soviet Republics (Russia, Ukraine, and Belorussia).

Therefore, in Georgia, much like in some other countries of the world and Europe, the era of quasi-equilibrium on the upper levels of childbirth and mortality is gradually replaced by the new stage of equilibrium on the lower levels of the same. As opposed to the previous periods, instead of the young structure of population (progressive type of the population structure), the latter is characterized by aged population (regressive type of the population structure), where mortality exceeds child-birth and depopulation is outlined.

According to our hypothesis, depopulation as the multiphase, curtailed type of population reproduction can develop in the following manner: within the first phase the growth of mortality rate lags behind the decrease rate of childbirth or is nearly equal, however the distinction between the levels of mortality and childbirth gradually increases in favor of the former. In the beginning of the first phase, the population growth within the boundary of zeros (0,1, 0,2….0.9) is feasible by periodically equalizing the levels of childbirth and mortality.

In the second phase, as a result of the high rate of mortality growth, on the one hand and the high rate of childbirth reduction on the other hand, the distinction between them increases in favor of mortality and thus, natural decline grows absolutely.

During the third phase, mortality reaches its maximum limit and against the background of stagnation it starts reduction, therefore, in light of gradual growth of childbirth we notice the decrease in the level of depopulation, which is reflected in the significant tendency of reduction of natural decline. By the end of the third phase, in case of activating self-regulation of demographic system, the significant change in the demographic behavior of society and family will cause an active demographic politics to come to the forefront. As a result, one can expect equalizing of childbirth and mortality first, and then natural growth on a lower level.

In contrast with earlier types of population reproduction, one of the main problems of the newest type of population reproduction - depopulation is to preserve physical continuity of small nations. One cannot exclude the chance of formation of “exotic population” within certain countries which stresses the problems of demographic security of smaller nations within the agenda.

Therefore, the newest type of population - depopulation as the natural demographic process is much safer for the existence of a country and nation the shorter it is in a given country. In this regard, based on proper conclusions, it is necessary that society and government come up with and implement a relevant, active demographic policy in order to root out depopulation in a timely manner.

Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Paata Gugushvili Institute of Economics International Scientific C O N F E R E N C E S "ECONOMY – XXI CENTURY"

E ISSN 2587 - 4691	∘ Avtandil Sulaberidze ∘ RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION – START OF DEPOPULATION IN GEORGIA Summary The modern demographic development of the world is characterized by diversity and if in some developed countries the modern type of population reproduction is replaced by the newest type - depopulation, in others it is in the last phase, and still in some other countries the second phase of the modern type of population reproduction is noticed. There is an interesting situation in South Caucasus as well. Unlike Azerbaijan, where the third phase of the modern type of population reproduction has just started (the rate of mortality went down to 6‰ by 2018 and at the same time, the tendency of significant decrease in child-birth is also noticeable, down to 16,5‰ by 2018), in Armenia the same phase was noted in the 90s of the last century and according to the data of the UN, one can expect the completion of the modern type of population reproduction and start of the newest type during 2020-2025 [www.esa.un.org]. As regards Georgia, the modern type of population reproduction came to an end in the 90s of the last century and today one can notice clear signs of depopulation. Generally, Georgia is characterized by the European type of demographic behavior and for a long time it has belonged to the list of the demographically developed countries. However, there is a distinction in that as opposed to the developed countries of Europe, it is an economically developing country like some of the Post-Soviet Republics (Russia, Ukraine, and Belorussia). Therefore, in Georgia, much like in some other countries of the world and Europe, the era of quasi-equilibrium on the upper levels of childbirth and mortality is gradually replaced by the new stage of equilibrium on the lower levels of the same. As opposed to the previous periods, instead of the young structure of population (progressive type of the population structure), the latter is characterized by aged population (regressive type of the population structure), where mortality exceeds child-birth and depopulation is outlined. According to our hypothesis, depopulation as the multiphase, curtailed type of population reproduction can develop in the following manner: within the first phase the growth of mortality rate lags behind the decrease rate of childbirth or is nearly equal, however the distinction between the levels of mortality and childbirth gradually increases in favor of the former. In the beginning of the first phase, the population growth within the boundary of zeros (0,1, 0,2….0.9) is feasible by periodically equalizing the levels of childbirth and mortality. In the second phase, as a result of the high rate of mortality growth, on the one hand and the high rate of childbirth reduction on the other hand, the distinction between them increases in favor of mortality and thus, natural decline grows absolutely. During the third phase, mortality reaches its maximum limit and against the background of stagnation it starts reduction, therefore, in light of gradual growth of childbirth we notice the decrease in the level of depopulation, which is reflected in the significant tendency of reduction of natural decline. By the end of the third phase, in case of activating self-regulation of demographic system, the significant change in the demographic behavior of society and family will cause an active demographic politics to come to the forefront. As a result, one can expect equalizing of childbirth and mortality first, and then natural growth on a lower level. In contrast with earlier types of population reproduction, one of the main problems of the newest type of population reproduction - depopulation is to preserve physical continuity of small nations. One cannot exclude the chance of formation of “exotic population” within certain countries which stresses the problems of demographic security of smaller nations within the agenda. Therefore, the newest type of population - depopulation as the natural demographic process is much safer for the existence of a country and nation the shorter it is in a given country. In this regard, based on proper conclusions, it is necessary that society and government come up with and implement a relevant, active demographic policy in order to root out depopulation in a timely manner.